Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis

What a month it was, one of the most volatile in recent times, though the range was just 318.50 from 5910.95 - 6229.45, but had many 100 pointer days. The Index ultimately closed at 5985.95 nearer to the lower range.

The Monthly Spot Values are: VAH-6167, POC-6079, VAL-5991 and Monthly VWAP at 6065

Nifty has closed below MVAL, which is very weak and remaining below it can seek the next support level around 5853, with a minor support at 5929. Below 5853, the Bullish trend will go for a toss and we can see 5750, 5685.

Two daily close above 5991 can bring in POC at 6079 and VAH at 6167.

Based on the above, it’s a Sell on rise till MPOC is not captured on closing basis.

Nifty Weekly View for Expiry

Standing at crossroad, with both Stochastic and RSI in buy, whereas MacD still to make a move and the overhead Trendline Resistance coming around 5835.

Fresh breakout only above 5835, else can stay in a range of 5700-5835 till expiry.

Looking at OI position, a short covering rally can move the index beyond 5835, but if the 5800CE writers stay put then probable expiry will be within the range.

The retracement for the fall from 6111.8 to 5477.2, the 50% comes at 5795 and 61.8% at 5869.

100 SMA is around 5859