Sunday, June 30, 2013

Nifty Volume Profile Analysis for July

A roller coaster ride for the index in the month of June with highs of 6011.00 and lows pegged at 5566.25 closing just above the average price at 5842.20

The Monthly Spot Values are: VAH-6009, POC-5920, VAL-5681

Monthly VWAP is at 5782

Nifty as per profile has closed above VWAP and VAL but just below POC, and staying above VWAP a move towards the first resistance zone around 5920 and then towards VAH at 6009 are possible. A close below VWAP will bring back weakness in Nifty and the index can seek lower level at VAL of 5681.

A pullback towards VWAP could be good place to enter longs.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Is there any chance of reversal in NIFTY?

NIFTY made low of 5740 and bounced back to 5795 level but the gain was eroded with last hour selling, hence it formed candle with very small real body.

Now, If we look closely to chart we can see that NIFTY formed reversal pattern in EOD candle which need follow up candle tomorrow . But a candle is not sufficient to chalkout reversal as NIFTY has closed below all major EMAs/SMAs and channel support. But aggressive contra trader may take risk of 20 points SL to buy around 5750-5760. Safe buy would be only closing above 5835. Trend followers are suggested to short at high near resistance or fibonacci retracement levels.

Some important observations:

  1. NIFTY closed below all EMAs/SMAs, channel support and 61.8% retracement level of entire rise from 5477 to 6229.
  2. Reversal candle stick pattern seen in EOD.
  3. NIFTY took support at long term support level at 5740.
  4. RSI is turning up.
  5. Oversold stochastic (although it may remain oversold for long time period)

Plan your trade and trade the plan. 

Sunday, June 2, 2013

Analysis of NIFTY - 31st May 2013

This week NIFTY's range seems to be narrow within the violet and green line unless it crosses any one line closing basis. Before going into conclusion on trading strategy, here are some observations which may help us immensely to track out the NIFTY's course of movement.

1. NIFTY closed below violet line and low of 27th May's candle and 31st May's candle is same.
2. Gap exists between 5844 and 5853 (marked by blue circle) and 50% retracement of entire rise from 5477 to 6229 falls nearly at 5855. 5855 is good enough support zone as indicated by black line.
3. RSI is standing at nearly 50% mark with negative bias as it failed to cross the blue line.
4. Although CCI has cooled off a bit but it is still above 100 marks and stochastic has given selling cross from halfway mark.
5. If we look carefully, a big bullish flag/falling wedge between yellow and green line is seen.

Conclusion and Trade Plan:

As of now NIFTY appears to be sell on rise. Friday's fall may take support around 5905-5915 (green line) and we may see counter rise from there towards violet line (6045-6055). Any level around violet line should be shorted with proper SL. NIFTY may fill the gap of 5844-5853 within the limit of green line. But WEEKLY CLOSE below green line may drag NIFTY down for deeper levels. But failing to close below green line, weekly closing basis, NIFTY may rise towards higher level and bigger bullish flag/falling wedge (between green and yellow line) may come into place.

Wish you happy trading.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis

What a month it was, one of the most volatile in recent times, though the range was just 318.50 from 5910.95 - 6229.45, but had many 100 pointer days. The Index ultimately closed at 5985.95 nearer to the lower range.

The Monthly Spot Values are: VAH-6167, POC-6079, VAL-5991 and Monthly VWAP at 6065

Nifty has closed below MVAL, which is very weak and remaining below it can seek the next support level around 5853, with a minor support at 5929. Below 5853, the Bullish trend will go for a toss and we can see 5750, 5685.

Two daily close above 5991 can bring in POC at 6079 and VAH at 6167.

Based on the above, it’s a Sell on rise till MPOC is not captured on closing basis.