Monday, September 30, 2013

Nifty & BankNifty Monthly Volume Profile Analysis - September

Nifty Spot Volume Profile:

A month where the Bulls ruled for most of the days but saw huge unwinding due to increase in Repo rate by 0.25% by RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and end of the Bull run. The index saw an increase of around 823 points within the first 3 weeks to the highs of the month at 6142.50 but the unwinding during the last few days saw the month end at 5735.30, still a gain of 263.50 points of around 4.8%.

This is was the highest range month of the year and the ATR(12) increased to 456.13. The index saw many big range days with highest one day gain of more than 216 points in years.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6130, POC-5876, VAL-5622 and Monthly VWAP at 5797

Nifty as per profile has closed just below VWAP, and staying below the same can see VAL at 5622, and below 5622 close, previous months values can come into play. Bulls can breathe easy only on a close above POC at 5876, till then it’s a SELL ON RISE.

Crucial Level for the Month is stationed at 5797 and 5876

BankNifty Spot Volume Profile:

Bank Nifty had a huge month with the index jumping from the lows of 8606 to the highs of 11220 (range of 2614 points) within a span of just 3 weeks, but saw huge unwinding in the latter half to close at 9617.80, still a gain of 568.60 points or approx 6.3%.

The ATR(12) for the month was highest one for the year at 1409.61 points and the index saw many 500 points moves per day.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10971, POC-10243, VAL-9516 and Monthly VWAP at 10010.

BankNifty as per profile has closed just a few points above VAL, which is weak, and can see VAL within a few days. A close below VAL can bring around 9167 and the lows of the month around 8620. Only a move above VWAP and better still above POC of 10243, can see the index making dash towards VAH at 10971.