Saturday, August 31, 2013

Nifty & BankNifty Monthly Volume Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Volume Profile:

A tailor made month for the Bears, with Nifty starting the month with a high of 5808.50 and making a low of 5118.85 towards the end, a range of 689.65 against the monthly ATR(12) of 422.73. The month had many 100 pointer day with the highest range of 235.65. Nifty closed the month just above the psychological level of 5400 at 5471.80, a huge loss of 4.7% month-on-month. It was the lowest monthly close of the year.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-5621, POC-5417, VAL-5214 and Monthly VWAP at 5510

Nifty as per profile has closed just above POC, and holding the same can see VAH at 5621, but has to overcome the VWAP level at 5510. Above VWAP, Nifty will be back above Bull level only on sustained close above VWAP. A close below POC can bring VAL and the lows around 5120.

Crucial Level for the Month is stationed at 5510

BankNifty Spot Volume Profile:

The downtrend in BankNifty continues unabated with the index losing more than 9.7% after making a high of 10219.60 and a low of 8366.75 to close at 9049.20. The range for the month was 1852.85, against a monthly ATR(12) of 1300. The index has lost around 5000 points in the last 73 session and in the last 2 months has lost 22.1%.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10194, POC-9729, VAL-9191 and Monthly VWAP at 9501.

BankNifty as per profile has closed below VAL, which is weak, but closing above VAL may kick in the 80% rule, towards 9729 and 10194, but staying below VAL may bring back the lows of the month and may be more new lows for the year. Only a close above VWAP will have a positive impact on the index.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

NIFTY bottomed out today....

Below a simple chart that shows NIFTY may have bottomed out today...

Reasons: -

1. Developing diamond pattern at low
2. Positive divergence 
3. Bullish butterfly
4. Bullish cross in Stochastic
5. Oversold CCI

As of now target becomes 5480/5550 there is resistance placed around 5560...