Index Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

A super month for the index, with Nifty scaling the psychological level of 7000 for the first time in the history of the index and staying comfortably above it to close the month at 7229.95, a huge gain of 533.55 points or around 8%.

The ATR(12) for the month jumped up to 460.67 after seeing 2 months of downward curve. The range for the month was 924.95 points with the lows placed at 6638.55 and high on the election result day at 7563.50. The month had many 100 pointers day with the highest being 432.85 on 16th May 2014.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-7491, POC-7278, VAL-7065 and Monthly VWAP at 7083.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below VAH and POC, but just managed to close above VAL. Based on the above we may see a touch of VAL or VWAP in the coming days. Immediate resistance for the index comes around POC at 7278 and staying below the same the index stays weak. Above POC a move towards VAH is possible.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

Bank Nifty, the stronger index from the last month saw huge upside, with the index clearing the all time high and moved above the psychological level of 15000 only to be pulled back at the end of the month to close at 14793.40, still a huge gain of 1937.60 points or approx 15.1%.

The ATR(12) for the month was the highest till date at 1530.50, with the highs of the index placed at 15742 and the lows at 12773, a range of 2969 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-15722, POC-15112, VAL-14197 and Monthly VWAP at 14326.

BankNifty as per profile has done an exact same of Nifty, closing just below POC but above VAL and VWAP. Staying below POC, a touch of VWAP and VAL is possible, but a close above POC can bring VAH and more.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: February

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: February 2014

What started with all Gloom and Doom ended with a flare as the index saw the lows of 5933.30 within the first 2 days of the month but closed at the highest point at 6276.95, a cool gain of 3.1% on a month on month basis.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 429.17, the lowest of the last 6 months, the range getting squeezed due to low VIX. Maybe it’s time for Volatility to increase with range expansion in the coming months.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6140, POC-6069, VAL-5998 and Monthly VWAP at 6099.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed way above the value areas, which though Bullish could see some pullback towards the mean in the coming days. Immediate resistance is the Virgin POC at 6305, and any pullback towards the Value area could be a buying opportunity.

Inference: Buy on Dips around 6160-6180, with Stop Loss below 6140 on Closing Basis…

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Bank Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: February 2014

Bank Nifty after 2 months of continuous downside from the top of 12226 seen on 09-12-2013 to the lows of 9944, saw some relief rally but still unable to scale 38.2% retracement level at 10816. The index in the mean while gained 5.1% for the month and a close above 10816 can bring higher levels at 11085 and 11354.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 1377.59, down from previous month by a huge margin. The range for the month was just 849.6 points with the highs pegged at 10793.60 and lows at 9944.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10488, POC-10216, VAL-9944 and Monthly VWAP at 10394.

Bank Nifty as per profile has closed way above VAH and a re-test of the same is possible in the coming days and only a close below the same, the index will move in the hands of the Bears, till then it’s Buy the dips. Upside resistance right now is placed around the Virgin POC at 11045.

Inference: Bank Nifty though weaker of the 2 indexes is a Buy on Dips till MVAH at 10488 with Stop Loss below VWAP at 10393 on a Closing basis...

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: January

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: January 2014

After seeing all time high just the previous month, the index was unable to sustain the high and lost more than 214 points or around 3.4% to close around the lows of the month at 6089.50.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 436.42, down from previous month by a few points. The month mostly had small range bound days with a few 100 pointers in between. The high of the month was at 6358.30 and the lows at 6027.25 on Expiry day.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6356, POC-6305, VAL-6181 and Monthly VWAP at 6223.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below all Value areas and looks extremely Bearish with immediate Resistance placed at 6181 the Monthly VAL. The Index will move into Bullish territory only above Monthly VWAP at 6223.

Inference: Sell on Rise around 6180-6220, with Stop Loss at 6223 on Closing Basis…

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: January 2014

Bank Nifty had a very bad month, with the index losing around 1478 points from the highs at 11578.90 to the lows at 10101.20 to close just above at 10237.80. The index ultimately lost 10.1% for the month and closed just below the 50% Fibo level for the rise from 8367 to 12226 with 61.8% placed at 9841.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 1425.59, upstaging the one of last month, with many 300 points day.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-11379, POC-11017, VAL-10656 and Monthly VWAP at 10922.

BankNifty as per profile has closed way below VAL and a re-test of the same is possible in the coming days and only a close above VAL and better still VWAP at 10922, Bulls can lay their claim on the Index.

Inference: Bank Nifty is the Weaker of the 2 index and Sell on Rise till Monthly POC at 11017 is not crossed on a Closing basis...

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: November

Nifty Spot Volume Profile:

The index started the month with the highs for the year at 6342.95 on Mahurat trading day on 3rd November but saw the euphoria of an all time high ending with profit booking setting in for the next few days to make a low of 5972.45. The index though covered much of its loss and ended the month on a bullish note at 6176.10, still a loss of around 2.0% for the month.

The range was 370.50, much lower compared to the last few month and the ATR(12) moved down to 460.60 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6169, POC-6071, VAL-5972 and Monthly VWAP at 6129

Nifty as per profile has closed above all values and looks good for more, and only a close below VWAP at 6129 can see change of trend to Bearish. Staying above MVAH, a move towards all time high is possible. Till VWAP is not breached on closing basis, participants can buy with small Stop Loss for higher levels, else can sell for MPOC and MVAL.

Crucial Level for the Month is stationed at 6129 and 6071

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile:

Bank Nifty had negative month with the index losing around 2.8%, though it made a high of 11736.20 but closed at 11153.95. The intermediate low was at 10412.00.

The ATR(12) for the month came down at 1442.22, with the range being only 1324.20 points and volatility also lower than the previous few months.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-11162, POC-10852, VAL-10541 and Monthly VWAP at 11016.

BankNifty as per profile has closed just a few points below VAH, which points to a range bound month, but a close above VAH for a few days can bring in higher levels at 11420 and 11740 but staying below can see lower levels at VWAP and POC. A close below POC will be sure sign of huge weakness.

Nifty & BankNifty Monthly Volume Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Volume Profile:

A tailor made month for the Bears, with Nifty starting the month with a high of 5808.50 and making a low of 5118.85 towards the end, a range of 689.65 against the monthly ATR(12) of 422.73. The month had many 100 pointer day with the highest range of 235.65. Nifty closed the month just above the psychological level of 5400 at 5471.80, a huge loss of 4.7% month-on-month. It was the lowest monthly close of the year.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-5621, POC-5417, VAL-5214 and Monthly VWAP at 5510

Nifty as per profile has closed just above POC, and holding the same can see VAH at 5621, but has to overcome the VWAP level at 5510. Above VWAP, Nifty will be back above Bull level only on sustained close above VWAP. A close below POC can bring VAL and the lows around 5120.

Crucial Level for the Month is stationed at 5510


BankNifty Spot Volume Profile:

The downtrend in BankNifty continues unabated with the index losing more than 9.7% after making a high of 10219.60 and a low of 8366.75 to close at 9049.20. The range for the month was 1852.85, against a monthly ATR(12) of 1300. The index has lost around 5000 points in the last 73 session and in the last 2 months has lost 22.1%.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10194, POC-9729, VAL-9191 and Monthly VWAP at 9501.

BankNifty as per profile has closed below VAL, which is weak, but closing above VAL may kick in the 80% rule, towards 9729 and 10194, but staying below VAL may bring back the lows of the month and may be more new lows for the year. Only a close above VWAP will have a positive impact on the index.

NIFTY Weekly Wrap: 14-December-2012

Last week in our Weekly Wrap we mentioned only downside levels and NIFTY nearly did our third level of 5830. 

This week NIFTY traded in narrow range of 126 points and closed with 28 points loss. Closing above 5 WEMA favors bull although weekly closing was lower than opening. It could not break the channel resistance and support line (please refer to chart). One noticeable thing is developing negative divergence in RSI. Next week closing may confirm the pattern.

In daily chart, NIFTY closes just below 5 DEMA and MACD has given Sell cross. But price should confirm all the observations.

As of now, buy the dips and sell the rise should be strategy for trade in NIFTY until it gives clear breakout in either side.

Please keep watching this space for trading levels in Opening Bell.

Wish you happy trading !!

NIFTY weekly wrap: 07-December-2012

Previous week, our observation was, "Buy the dip and book profit at high should be the strategy for the week. Do not short until chart shows clear reversal sign. Important levels at higher side are 5910/5930/5950/5980/6045/6080/6145"

Nifty exactly resisted at 3rd level of 5950 on Friday before showing some profit booking.

Now, important question, is the sell-off at last hour on Friday early indication of reversal?

It is too early to say "Yes". There is no reversal sign in weekly chart of NIFTY, although in Daily chart bearish candle formed after "Dragonfly Doji".

In the chart above, it is clearly seen that Nifty tested the red line support area but could not break the line. Only closing and sustenance below the red line (5810) can be considered as reversal from the current upmove.

We also observed  "This up-move is going to stay for few weeks more although at higher level it may show some weakness"; and we are still with this view. Intraday corrections are inevitable which can be used to buy until NIFTY closes below NP-SAR.

Important levels on downside are 5900/5870/5830/5810/5780.

Please visit this space for near perfect trade setup for the day and Nifty Pulse Page for free calls. 

Wish you happy trading !!!

Analysis of NIFTY: 6-December-2012

Today, our NP-SAR was 5841. We suggested our readers to partbook NIFTY around 5920-30. So, we got that level to exit. NIFTY corrected to 5838 which was close to NP-SAR and re-buying level of NIFTY.

During strong trending move corrections should be taken as re-entry level and entry point should be NP-SAR +/-5 points with 20 points SL. It is tested that during trending move NIFTY always correct to NP-SAR level which can be treated as re-entry level. If 20 points SL hit, it should be a reversal signal.

Now coming to NIFTY. Today NIFTY formed long legged DOJI. It touched the red line (as discussed yesterday) but could not sustain below it.  On daily chart, NIFTY is reaching over bought zone. Stochastic is flat at higher level. No signal from MACD yet. So, NIFTY may remain in over bought zone for sometime more; yet we should remain cautious at higher level. But we suggest to stay long with part book at regular interval and re-entry at NP-SAR level.

Trading above 5945 will give further oxygen to NIFTY for further upmove to 5980(blue line)/6040. On the other hand, trading below 5910 may invite larger correction.

Free call performance: Today free call of IRB was given. It hits target 1 and almost achieved target 2.

Free calls are provided at NIFTY Pulse Page of Face book.

Wish you happy trading !!!

Opening Bell for 03/12/12

Good Morning !!! Nifty may open flat to positive. Positive bias may remain for the day although some profit booking is expected at higher level. 5910 and 5850 are two important levels for the day.

SELLING should be executed near 5910 with 5940 SL for target of 5880/5850/5820

BUYING should be executed near 5850 with 5820 SL for target of 5880/5910/5930

Nifty Weekly Wrap 30-11-2012

This week NIFTY saw breakout in price supported by huge volume. Those who follow our NiftyPulse Page and Marketpulse S&P Group in Facebook are well prepared for this decent up-move not only in NIFTY but also in stocks like LT, SBIN, IDFC, IDBI, RELINFRA and many more.

Now the important question that comes in our mind, is the euphoric up-move in NIFTY strong enough to last long?

If yes, then what should be the target for the up-move?

After 7 weeks of consolidation, NIFTY broken out of channel. This up-move is going to stay for few weeks more although at higher level it may show some weakness.

The major resistance levels are highlighted with thin red lines (see candle stick chart). Nifty will correct in short T/F and those levels should be used to Buy. We suggest to book part profit at regular interval.

Buy the dip and book profit at high should be the strategy for the week. Do not short until chart shows clear reversal sign.

Important levels at higher side are 5910/5930/5950/5980/6045/6080/6145

Stay connected for profitable trade set-up.

Wish you happy trading!!!

Expiry Special NIFTY Analysis

After 35 days of consolidation NIFTY finally broken out with decent volume. So, technically this bullishness may remain for some time now. But tomorrow is expiry day for current series...let’s have a look how NIFTY is positioned itself for tomorrow.

If we look at the chart, it is clearly visible that 5760-5780 is a zone of resistance and NIFTY may likely to get resisted there. A positive opening tomorrow may trigger nifty to higher level after consolidation in opening hour. But negative divergence may appear at higher level in short time frame chart which could be used to sell on intra-day basis as nifty is overbought in shorter timer frame.

So, tomorrow NIFTY will remain volatile and give two way trading opportunity. For expiry special NIFTY Call during market hours keep eyes on NIFTY PULSE page in Facebook.

Wish you happy trading.

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