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Thursday, May 1, 2014

Index Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

A volatile month after the one way ride seen in March, with the index making new all time high at 6869.85 but losing out most of the gains in the last 4 days of trade to close at 6696.40, 7.8 points lower than previous month.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 418.46, down from previous month by a few points. The month mostly had small range bound days with a few 100 pointers in between. The high of the month was at 6869.85 and the lows at 6650.40 with the range being 219.45 points, the smallest in a year.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6781, POC-6729, VAL-6677 and Monthly VWAP at 6755.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below VAH and POC, but just managed to close above VAL. Based on the above we may see range bound moves and breakout breakdown could provide huge opportunity in the coming days. Immediate resistance for the index comes around VWAP at 6755 and staying below 6677, it can go all the way towards the Virgin POC stationed at 6513.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...



BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

Bank Nifty after the huge up move of March, had a Doji candle with the Open at 12806.20 and close just above at 12855.8, a gain of 113.80 points. The index missed all time high by a few points though Nifty did.

The ATR(12) for the month was much lower than the previous month at 1399.73, with the highs at 13268.60 and the lows pegged at 12430.80, range of just 837.80 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-12931, POC-12613, VAL-12431 and Monthly VWAP at 12807.

BankNifty as per profile has closed above POC and VWAP but just below VAH and seems to be better placed to clear all time high in the coming days holding above VWAP. A close below POC will tilt the index in favour of the Bears.

Inference: Bank Nifty right now is the Stronger of the 2 index and a Buy on Dips towards VWAP can be tried for a move towards VAH and above...

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