Index Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

A super month for the index, with Nifty scaling the psychological level of 7000 for the first time in the history of the index and staying comfortably above it to close the month at 7229.95, a huge gain of 533.55 points or around 8%.

The ATR(12) for the month jumped up to 460.67 after seeing 2 months of downward curve. The range for the month was 924.95 points with the lows placed at 6638.55 and high on the election result day at 7563.50. The month had many 100 pointers day with the highest being 432.85 on 16th May 2014.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-7491, POC-7278, VAL-7065 and Monthly VWAP at 7083.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below VAH and POC, but just managed to close above VAL. Based on the above we may see a touch of VAL or VWAP in the coming days. Immediate resistance for the index comes around POC at 7278 and staying below the same the index stays weak. Above POC a move towards VAH is possible.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

Bank Nifty, the stronger index from the last month saw huge upside, with the index clearing the all time high and moved above the psychological level of 15000 only to be pulled back at the end of the month to close at 14793.40, still a huge gain of 1937.60 points or approx 15.1%.

The ATR(12) for the month was the highest till date at 1530.50, with the highs of the index placed at 15742 and the lows at 12773, a range of 2969 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-15722, POC-15112, VAL-14197 and Monthly VWAP at 14326.

BankNifty as per profile has done an exact same of Nifty, closing just below POC but above VAL and VWAP. Staying below POC, a touch of VWAP and VAL is possible, but a close above POC can bring VAH and more.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

Index Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

A volatile month after the one way ride seen in March, with the index making new all time high at 6869.85 but losing out most of the gains in the last 4 days of trade to close at 6696.40, 7.8 points lower than previous month.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 418.46, down from previous month by a few points. The month mostly had small range bound days with a few 100 pointers in between. The high of the month was at 6869.85 and the lows at 6650.40 with the range being 219.45 points, the smallest in a year.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6781, POC-6729, VAL-6677 and Monthly VWAP at 6755.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below VAH and POC, but just managed to close above VAL. Based on the above we may see range bound moves and breakout breakdown could provide huge opportunity in the coming days. Immediate resistance for the index comes around VWAP at 6755 and staying below 6677, it can go all the way towards the Virgin POC stationed at 6513.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

Bank Nifty after the huge up move of March, had a Doji candle with the Open at 12806.20 and close just above at 12855.8, a gain of 113.80 points. The index missed all time high by a few points though Nifty did.

The ATR(12) for the month was much lower than the previous month at 1399.73, with the highs at 13268.60 and the lows pegged at 12430.80, range of just 837.80 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-12931, POC-12613, VAL-12431 and Monthly VWAP at 12807.

BankNifty as per profile has closed above POC and VWAP but just below VAH and seems to be better placed to clear all time high in the coming days holding above VWAP. A close below POC will tilt the index in favour of the Bears.

Inference: Bank Nifty right now is the Stronger of the 2 index and a Buy on Dips towards VWAP can be tried for a move towards VAH and above...

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: February

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: February 2014

What started with all Gloom and Doom ended with a flare as the index saw the lows of 5933.30 within the first 2 days of the month but closed at the highest point at 6276.95, a cool gain of 3.1% on a month on month basis.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 429.17, the lowest of the last 6 months, the range getting squeezed due to low VIX. Maybe it’s time for Volatility to increase with range expansion in the coming months.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6140, POC-6069, VAL-5998 and Monthly VWAP at 6099.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed way above the value areas, which though Bullish could see some pullback towards the mean in the coming days. Immediate resistance is the Virgin POC at 6305, and any pullback towards the Value area could be a buying opportunity.

Inference: Buy on Dips around 6160-6180, with Stop Loss below 6140 on Closing Basis…

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Bank Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: February 2014

Bank Nifty after 2 months of continuous downside from the top of 12226 seen on 09-12-2013 to the lows of 9944, saw some relief rally but still unable to scale 38.2% retracement level at 10816. The index in the mean while gained 5.1% for the month and a close above 10816 can bring higher levels at 11085 and 11354.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 1377.59, down from previous month by a huge margin. The range for the month was just 849.6 points with the highs pegged at 10793.60 and lows at 9944.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10488, POC-10216, VAL-9944 and Monthly VWAP at 10394.

Bank Nifty as per profile has closed way above VAH and a re-test of the same is possible in the coming days and only a close below the same, the index will move in the hands of the Bears, till then it’s Buy the dips. Upside resistance right now is placed around the Virgin POC at 11045.

Inference: Bank Nifty though weaker of the 2 indexes is a Buy on Dips till MVAH at 10488 with Stop Loss below VWAP at 10393 on a Closing basis...

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: January

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: January 2014

After seeing all time high just the previous month, the index was unable to sustain the high and lost more than 214 points or around 3.4% to close around the lows of the month at 6089.50.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 436.42, down from previous month by a few points. The month mostly had small range bound days with a few 100 pointers in between. The high of the month was at 6358.30 and the lows at 6027.25 on Expiry day.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6356, POC-6305, VAL-6181 and Monthly VWAP at 6223.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below all Value areas and looks extremely Bearish with immediate Resistance placed at 6181 the Monthly VAL. The Index will move into Bullish territory only above Monthly VWAP at 6223.

Inference: Sell on Rise around 6180-6220, with Stop Loss at 6223 on Closing Basis…

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: January 2014

Bank Nifty had a very bad month, with the index losing around 1478 points from the highs at 11578.90 to the lows at 10101.20 to close just above at 10237.80. The index ultimately lost 10.1% for the month and closed just below the 50% Fibo level for the rise from 8367 to 12226 with 61.8% placed at 9841.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 1425.59, upstaging the one of last month, with many 300 points day.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-11379, POC-11017, VAL-10656 and Monthly VWAP at 10922.

BankNifty as per profile has closed way below VAL and a re-test of the same is possible in the coming days and only a close above VAL and better still VWAP at 10922, Bulls can lay their claim on the Index.

Inference: Bank Nifty is the Weaker of the 2 index and Sell on Rise till Monthly POC at 11017 is not crossed on a Closing basis...