Index Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

A super month for the index, with Nifty scaling the psychological level of 7000 for the first time in the history of the index and staying comfortably above it to close the month at 7229.95, a huge gain of 533.55 points or around 8%.

The ATR(12) for the month jumped up to 460.67 after seeing 2 months of downward curve. The range for the month was 924.95 points with the lows placed at 6638.55 and high on the election result day at 7563.50. The month had many 100 pointers day with the highest being 432.85 on 16th May 2014.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-7491, POC-7278, VAL-7065 and Monthly VWAP at 7083.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below VAH and POC, but just managed to close above VAL. Based on the above we may see a touch of VAL or VWAP in the coming days. Immediate resistance for the index comes around POC at 7278 and staying below the same the index stays weak. Above POC a move towards VAH is possible.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

---

BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

Bank Nifty, the stronger index from the last month saw huge upside, with the index clearing the all time high and moved above the psychological level of 15000 only to be pulled back at the end of the month to close at 14793.40, still a huge gain of 1937.60 points or approx 15.1%.

The ATR(12) for the month was the highest till date at 1530.50, with the highs of the index placed at 15742 and the lows at 12773, a range of 2969 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-15722, POC-15112, VAL-14197 and Monthly VWAP at 14326.

BankNifty as per profile has done an exact same of Nifty, closing just below POC but above VAL and VWAP. Staying below POC, a touch of VWAP and VAL is possible, but a close above POC can bring VAH and more.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: February

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: February 2014

What started with all Gloom and Doom ended with a flare as the index saw the lows of 5933.30 within the first 2 days of the month but closed at the highest point at 6276.95, a cool gain of 3.1% on a month on month basis.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 429.17, the lowest of the last 6 months, the range getting squeezed due to low VIX. Maybe it’s time for Volatility to increase with range expansion in the coming months.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6140, POC-6069, VAL-5998 and Monthly VWAP at 6099.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed way above the value areas, which though Bullish could see some pullback towards the mean in the coming days. Immediate resistance is the Virgin POC at 6305, and any pullback towards the Value area could be a buying opportunity.

Inference: Buy on Dips around 6160-6180, with Stop Loss below 6140 on Closing Basis…

---

Bank Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: February 2014

Bank Nifty after 2 months of continuous downside from the top of 12226 seen on 09-12-2013 to the lows of 9944, saw some relief rally but still unable to scale 38.2% retracement level at 10816. The index in the mean while gained 5.1% for the month and a close above 10816 can bring higher levels at 11085 and 11354.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 1377.59, down from previous month by a huge margin. The range for the month was just 849.6 points with the highs pegged at 10793.60 and lows at 9944.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10488, POC-10216, VAL-9944 and Monthly VWAP at 10394.

Bank Nifty as per profile has closed way above VAH and a re-test of the same is possible in the coming days and only a close below the same, the index will move in the hands of the Bears, till then it’s Buy the dips. Upside resistance right now is placed around the Virgin POC at 11045.

Inference: Bank Nifty though weaker of the 2 indexes is a Buy on Dips till MVAH at 10488 with Stop Loss below VWAP at 10393 on a Closing basis...

Analysis of BANK NIFTY

Previous week we saw decent fall in Bank Nifty and it has closed below all MAs. BN is looking very bearish. But is it all? Let’s see..

The broader picture...

After giving selling cross in stochastic, till date BN has broken all trendline support and trading below it. We have another three trading days to go, BN has to save 11150 level to get some breather. But till it is trading below 12050, it is short on rise. Only a close above 12050 may change the scenario for the time being.

The medium term...

Although weekly chart of BN is looking very bearish but hope starts to build in no-confidence zone. As the weekly chart suggests 10350 is decent support and weekly closing above 10810 is hood for some 500-600 (or more) points upmove. As of now weekly chart is oversold (although it can be in oversold zone for long only price may confirm upmove) and may look for some respite before fall again. 

The immediate term...

On 30 min chart, we can see positive divergence till closing and it may have some effects with some upmove. As per 30 min chart, 11200 level is decent resistance. 

Levels

5EMA: 10747   21DEMA: 11198  5DSMA: 10825 5WEMA: 11243

Wish you happy trading...