Index Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

A super month for the index, with Nifty scaling the psychological level of 7000 for the first time in the history of the index and staying comfortably above it to close the month at 7229.95, a huge gain of 533.55 points or around 8%.

The ATR(12) for the month jumped up to 460.67 after seeing 2 months of downward curve. The range for the month was 924.95 points with the lows placed at 6638.55 and high on the election result day at 7563.50. The month had many 100 pointers day with the highest being 432.85 on 16th May 2014.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-7491, POC-7278, VAL-7065 and Monthly VWAP at 7083.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below VAH and POC, but just managed to close above VAL. Based on the above we may see a touch of VAL or VWAP in the coming days. Immediate resistance for the index comes around POC at 7278 and staying below the same the index stays weak. Above POC a move towards VAH is possible.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: May 2014

Bank Nifty, the stronger index from the last month saw huge upside, with the index clearing the all time high and moved above the psychological level of 15000 only to be pulled back at the end of the month to close at 14793.40, still a huge gain of 1937.60 points or approx 15.1%.

The ATR(12) for the month was the highest till date at 1530.50, with the highs of the index placed at 15742 and the lows at 12773, a range of 2969 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-15722, POC-15112, VAL-14197 and Monthly VWAP at 14326.

BankNifty as per profile has done an exact same of Nifty, closing just below POC but above VAL and VWAP. Staying below POC, a touch of VWAP and VAL is possible, but a close above POC can bring VAH and more.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

Index Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

A volatile month after the one way ride seen in March, with the index making new all time high at 6869.85 but losing out most of the gains in the last 4 days of trade to close at 6696.40, 7.8 points lower than previous month.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 418.46, down from previous month by a few points. The month mostly had small range bound days with a few 100 pointers in between. The high of the month was at 6869.85 and the lows at 6650.40 with the range being 219.45 points, the smallest in a year.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6781, POC-6729, VAL-6677 and Monthly VWAP at 6755.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below VAH and POC, but just managed to close above VAL. Based on the above we may see range bound moves and breakout breakdown could provide huge opportunity in the coming days. Immediate resistance for the index comes around VWAP at 6755 and staying below 6677, it can go all the way towards the Virgin POC stationed at 6513.

Inference: Play the VAH-VAL range with small SL till we see breakout or breakdown...

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: April 2014

Bank Nifty after the huge up move of March, had a Doji candle with the Open at 12806.20 and close just above at 12855.8, a gain of 113.80 points. The index missed all time high by a few points though Nifty did.

The ATR(12) for the month was much lower than the previous month at 1399.73, with the highs at 13268.60 and the lows pegged at 12430.80, range of just 837.80 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-12931, POC-12613, VAL-12431 and Monthly VWAP at 12807.

BankNifty as per profile has closed above POC and VWAP but just below VAH and seems to be better placed to clear all time high in the coming days holding above VWAP. A close below POC will tilt the index in favour of the Bears.

Inference: Bank Nifty right now is the Stronger of the 2 index and a Buy on Dips towards VWAP can be tried for a move towards VAH and above...

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: February

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: February 2014

What started with all Gloom and Doom ended with a flare as the index saw the lows of 5933.30 within the first 2 days of the month but closed at the highest point at 6276.95, a cool gain of 3.1% on a month on month basis.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 429.17, the lowest of the last 6 months, the range getting squeezed due to low VIX. Maybe it’s time for Volatility to increase with range expansion in the coming months.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6140, POC-6069, VAL-5998 and Monthly VWAP at 6099.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed way above the value areas, which though Bullish could see some pullback towards the mean in the coming days. Immediate resistance is the Virgin POC at 6305, and any pullback towards the Value area could be a buying opportunity.

Inference: Buy on Dips around 6160-6180, with Stop Loss below 6140 on Closing Basis…

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Bank Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: February 2014

Bank Nifty after 2 months of continuous downside from the top of 12226 seen on 09-12-2013 to the lows of 9944, saw some relief rally but still unable to scale 38.2% retracement level at 10816. The index in the mean while gained 5.1% for the month and a close above 10816 can bring higher levels at 11085 and 11354.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 1377.59, down from previous month by a huge margin. The range for the month was just 849.6 points with the highs pegged at 10793.60 and lows at 9944.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10488, POC-10216, VAL-9944 and Monthly VWAP at 10394.

Bank Nifty as per profile has closed way above VAH and a re-test of the same is possible in the coming days and only a close below the same, the index will move in the hands of the Bears, till then it’s Buy the dips. Upside resistance right now is placed around the Virgin POC at 11045.

Inference: Bank Nifty though weaker of the 2 indexes is a Buy on Dips till MVAH at 10488 with Stop Loss below VWAP at 10393 on a Closing basis...

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: January

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: January 2014

After seeing all time high just the previous month, the index was unable to sustain the high and lost more than 214 points or around 3.4% to close around the lows of the month at 6089.50.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 436.42, down from previous month by a few points. The month mostly had small range bound days with a few 100 pointers in between. The high of the month was at 6358.30 and the lows at 6027.25 on Expiry day.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6356, POC-6305, VAL-6181 and Monthly VWAP at 6223.

Nifty Spot as per profile has closed below all Value areas and looks extremely Bearish with immediate Resistance placed at 6181 the Monthly VAL. The Index will move into Bullish territory only above Monthly VWAP at 6223.

Inference: Sell on Rise around 6180-6220, with Stop Loss at 6223 on Closing Basis…

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: January 2014

Bank Nifty had a very bad month, with the index losing around 1478 points from the highs at 11578.90 to the lows at 10101.20 to close just above at 10237.80. The index ultimately lost 10.1% for the month and closed just below the 50% Fibo level for the rise from 8367 to 12226 with 61.8% placed at 9841.

The ATR(12) for the month was at 1425.59, upstaging the one of last month, with many 300 points day.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-11379, POC-11017, VAL-10656 and Monthly VWAP at 10922.

BankNifty as per profile has closed way below VAL and a re-test of the same is possible in the coming days and only a close above VAL and better still VWAP at 10922, Bulls can lay their claim on the Index.

Inference: Bank Nifty is the Weaker of the 2 index and Sell on Rise till Monthly POC at 11017 is not crossed on a Closing basis...

Happy New Year 2014

Wishing all our Blog Readers a 

Very Happy and Prosperous New Year

Monthly Volume Profile Analysis: November

Nifty Spot Volume Profile:

The index started the month with the highs for the year at 6342.95 on Mahurat trading day on 3rd November but saw the euphoria of an all time high ending with profit booking setting in for the next few days to make a low of 5972.45. The index though covered much of its loss and ended the month on a bullish note at 6176.10, still a loss of around 2.0% for the month.

The range was 370.50, much lower compared to the last few month and the ATR(12) moved down to 460.60 points.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6169, POC-6071, VAL-5972 and Monthly VWAP at 6129

Nifty as per profile has closed above all values and looks good for more, and only a close below VWAP at 6129 can see change of trend to Bearish. Staying above MVAH, a move towards all time high is possible. Till VWAP is not breached on closing basis, participants can buy with small Stop Loss for higher levels, else can sell for MPOC and MVAL.

Crucial Level for the Month is stationed at 6129 and 6071

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BankNifty Spot Volume Profile:

Bank Nifty had negative month with the index losing around 2.8%, though it made a high of 11736.20 but closed at 11153.95. The intermediate low was at 10412.00.

The ATR(12) for the month came down at 1442.22, with the range being only 1324.20 points and volatility also lower than the previous few months.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-11162, POC-10852, VAL-10541 and Monthly VWAP at 11016.

BankNifty as per profile has closed just a few points below VAH, which points to a range bound month, but a close above VAH for a few days can bring in higher levels at 11420 and 11740 but staying below can see lower levels at VWAP and POC. A close below POC will be sure sign of huge weakness.

Nifty & BankNifty Monthly Volume Profile Analysis - October

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis :

A terrific month for the Bulls, which started from the lows on the first day at 5700.95 and closed at the high on the last day at 6299.15, a super gain of 600 points and in effect had an all time highest monthly close. Nifty is just a few points away from all time high of 6357.10 and based on the momentum it may be scaled in the first week of November.

This range for the month was 608.10, much lower than that of previous month and the ATR(12) was was 468.80 points. The big range days of September reduced drastically and we had a few 100 points days.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6246, POC-6103, VAL-5960 and Monthly VWAP at 6084

Nifty as per profile has closed above all values and looks extremely strong, and only a close below VAH can see corrective towards POC at 6103 and VWAP at 6084. Till VWAP is not breached on closing basis for at least 2 days, it’s a BUY ON DIPS.

Crucial Level for the Month is stationed at 6246 and 6084


BankNifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis: 

Bank Nifty had a great month with the index adding 1855.40 points or approx 19.30%, the highest monthly gain in the last 3 years. The index closed just below the 61.8% level of the fall from 13414 to 8367, stationed at 11486..

The ATR(12) for the month was at 1453.14, upstaging the one of last month, with many 400 points day with the highest range of 599.20 on 29th October.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-11465, POC-10866, VAL-10267 and Monthly VWAP at 10616.

BankNifty as per profile has closed above all values areas and looks bullish. Immediate resistance is the Virgin POC at 11832. Weakness will creep in below 11465 with change of trend below 10866 or below the Monthly VWAP of 10616.

Opening Bell for 30th-Oct-2013

Good Morning !! NIFTY may open positive to gap-up. Above 6252 NIFTY may target 6299/6320/6345..we should remain cautious at higher levels. Aggressive traders may short NIFTY at higher levels around 6299-6320. 

Wish you profitable day.

Opening Bell for 29-OCT-13

Good Morning !! NIFTY may open flat to positive. Trading above 6130-6150 may bring some relief to the bulls but as of now "sell the high" should be strategy for trading NIFTY. Today, we may see some downmove after consolidation. Trading below 6090, NIFTY may target 6060/6010/5980.

Wish you profitable day.

Weekly analysis of NIFTY - 25th Oct. 2013

This week we saw narrow range of 136 points in NIFTY but within this narrow range we saw some interesting observations as follows:-

1. NIFTY made new yearly high at 6252.
2. Negative divergence in weekly chart.
3. Larger volume compared to average volume of previous 8 weeks.
4. Bearish harami candle stick pattern.
4. Overbought stochastc and CCI.

Some important observation that we have found in daily chart :-

1. NIFTY closed in -ve for four consecutive days.
2. Selling cross in MACD
3. Overbought CCI and RSI.

From weekly and daily chart, we can conclude that NIFTY is heading for lower levels.

But presence of bullish Gartley Pattern ensures some upmove towards 6200 which can be good selling opportunity.

Opening Bell : 24/10/2013

Good Morning !! NIFTY may open flat to positive. Trading above 6198, NIFTY may target 6230/6280/6315...whereas trading below 6160, NIFTY may target 6120/6080/6030. After some consolidation we may see either side breakout in NIFTY.

Wish you profitable day.

Nifty & BankNifty Monthly Volume Profile Analysis - September

Nifty Spot Volume Profile:

A month where the Bulls ruled for most of the days but saw huge unwinding due to increase in Repo rate by 0.25% by RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and end of the Bull run. The index saw an increase of around 823 points within the first 3 weeks to the highs of the month at 6142.50 but the unwinding during the last few days saw the month end at 5735.30, still a gain of 263.50 points of around 4.8%.

This is was the highest range month of the year and the ATR(12) increased to 456.13. The index saw many big range days with highest one day gain of more than 216 points in years.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-6130, POC-5876, VAL-5622 and Monthly VWAP at 5797

Nifty as per profile has closed just below VWAP, and staying below the same can see VAL at 5622, and below 5622 close, previous months values can come into play. Bulls can breathe easy only on a close above POC at 5876, till then it’s a SELL ON RISE.

Crucial Level for the Month is stationed at 5797 and 5876


BankNifty Spot Volume Profile:

Bank Nifty had a huge month with the index jumping from the lows of 8606 to the highs of 11220 (range of 2614 points) within a span of just 3 weeks, but saw huge unwinding in the latter half to close at 9617.80, still a gain of 568.60 points or approx 6.3%.

The ATR(12) for the month was highest one for the year at 1409.61 points and the index saw many 500 points moves per day.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10971, POC-10243, VAL-9516 and Monthly VWAP at 10010.

BankNifty as per profile has closed just a few points above VAL, which is weak, and can see VAL within a few days. A close below VAL can bring around 9167 and the lows of the month around 8620. Only a move above VWAP and better still above POC of 10243, can see the index making dash towards VAH at 10971.

We are back...

Nifty & BankNifty Monthly Volume Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Volume Profile:

A tailor made month for the Bears, with Nifty starting the month with a high of 5808.50 and making a low of 5118.85 towards the end, a range of 689.65 against the monthly ATR(12) of 422.73. The month had many 100 pointer day with the highest range of 235.65. Nifty closed the month just above the psychological level of 5400 at 5471.80, a huge loss of 4.7% month-on-month. It was the lowest monthly close of the year.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-5621, POC-5417, VAL-5214 and Monthly VWAP at 5510

Nifty as per profile has closed just above POC, and holding the same can see VAH at 5621, but has to overcome the VWAP level at 5510. Above VWAP, Nifty will be back above Bull level only on sustained close above VWAP. A close below POC can bring VAL and the lows around 5120.

Crucial Level for the Month is stationed at 5510


BankNifty Spot Volume Profile:

The downtrend in BankNifty continues unabated with the index losing more than 9.7% after making a high of 10219.60 and a low of 8366.75 to close at 9049.20. The range for the month was 1852.85, against a monthly ATR(12) of 1300. The index has lost around 5000 points in the last 73 session and in the last 2 months has lost 22.1%.

The Monthly Spot Profile Values are: VAH-10194, POC-9729, VAL-9191 and Monthly VWAP at 9501.

BankNifty as per profile has closed below VAL, which is weak, but closing above VAL may kick in the 80% rule, towards 9729 and 10194, but staying below VAL may bring back the lows of the month and may be more new lows for the year. Only a close above VWAP will have a positive impact on the index.

NIFTY bottomed out today....

Below a simple chart that shows NIFTY may have bottomed out today...

Reasons: -

1. Developing diamond pattern at low

2. Positive divergence 

3. Bullish butterfly

4. Bullish cross in Stochastic

5. Oversold CCI

As of now target becomes 5480/5550 there is resistance placed around 5560...

Analysis of BANK NIFTY

Previous week we saw decent fall in Bank Nifty and it has closed below all MAs. BN is looking very bearish. But is it all? Let’s see..

The broader picture...

After giving selling cross in stochastic, till date BN has broken all trendline support and trading below it. We have another three trading days to go, BN has to save 11150 level to get some breather. But till it is trading below 12050, it is short on rise. Only a close above 12050 may change the scenario for the time being.

The medium term...

Although weekly chart of BN is looking very bearish but hope starts to build in no-confidence zone. As the weekly chart suggests 10350 is decent support and weekly closing above 10810 is hood for some 500-600 (or more) points upmove. As of now weekly chart is oversold (although it can be in oversold zone for long only price may confirm upmove) and may look for some respite before fall again. 

The immediate term...

On 30 min chart, we can see positive divergence till closing and it may have some effects with some upmove. As per 30 min chart, 11200 level is decent resistance. 

Levels

5EMA: 10747   21DEMA: 11198  5DSMA: 10825 5WEMA: 11243

Wish you happy trading...

Nifty Volume Profile Analysis for July

A roller coaster ride for the index in the month of June with highs of 6011.00 and lows pegged at 5566.25 closing just above the average price at 5842.20

The Monthly Spot Values are: VAH-6009, POC-5920, VAL-5681

Monthly VWAP is at 5782

Nifty as per profile has closed above VWAP and VAL but just below POC, and staying above VWAP a move towards the first resistance zone around 5920 and then towards VAH at 6009 are possible. A close below VWAP will bring back weakness in Nifty and the index can seek lower level at VAL of 5681.

A pullback towards VWAP could be good place to enter longs.

Is there any chance of reversal in NIFTY?

NIFTY made low of 5740 and bounced back to 5795 level but the gain was eroded with last hour selling, hence it formed candle with very small real body.

Now, If we look closely to chart we can see that NIFTY formed reversal pattern in EOD candle which need follow up candle tomorrow . But a candle is not sufficient to chalkout reversal as NIFTY has closed below all major EMAs/SMAs and channel support. But aggressive contra trader may take risk of 20 points SL to buy around 5750-5760. Safe buy would be only closing above 5835. Trend followers are suggested to short at high near resistance or fibonacci retracement levels.

Some important observations:

1. NIFTY closed below all EMAs/SMAs, channel support and 61.8% retracement level of entire rise from 5477 to 6229.
2. Reversal candle stick pattern seen in EOD.
3. NIFTY took support at long term support level at 5740.
4. RSI is turning up.
5. Oversold stochastic (although it may remain oversold for long time period)

Plan your trade and trade the plan. 

Analysis of NIFTY - 31st May 2013

This week NIFTY's range seems to be narrow within the violet and green line unless it crosses any one line closing basis. Before going into conclusion on trading strategy, here are some observations which may help us immensely to track out the NIFTY's course of movement.

1. NIFTY closed below violet line and low of 27th May's candle and 31st May's candle is same.
2. Gap exists between 5844 and 5853 (marked by blue circle) and 50% retracement of entire rise from 5477 to 6229 falls nearly at 5855. 5855 is good enough support zone as indicated by black line.
3. RSI is standing at nearly 50% mark with negative bias as it failed to cross the blue line.
4. Although CCI has cooled off a bit but it is still above 100 marks and stochastic has given selling cross from halfway mark.
5. If we look carefully, a big bullish flag/falling wedge between yellow and green line is seen.

Conclusion and Trade Plan:

As of now NIFTY appears to be sell on rise. Friday's fall may take support around 5905-5915 (green line) and we may see counter rise from there towards violet line (6045-6055). Any level around violet line should be shorted with proper SL. NIFTY may fill the gap of 5844-5853 within the limit of green line. But WEEKLY CLOSE below green line may drag NIFTY down for deeper levels. But failing to close below green line, weekly closing basis, NIFTY may rise towards higher level and bigger bullish flag/falling wedge (between green and yellow line) may come into place.

Wish you happy trading.

Nifty Spot Volume Profile Analysis

What a month it was, one of the most volatile in recent times, though the range was just 318.50 from 5910.95 - 6229.45, but had many 100 pointer days. The Index ultimately closed at 5985.95 nearer to the lower range.

The Monthly Spot Values are: VAH-6167, POC-6079, VAL-5991 and Monthly VWAP at 6065

Nifty has closed below MVAL, which is very weak and remaining below it can seek the next support level around 5853, with a minor support at 5929. Below 5853, the Bullish trend will go for a toss and we can see 5750, 5685.

Two daily close above 5991 can bring in POC at 6079 and VAH at 6167.

Based on the above, it’s a Sell on rise till MPOC is not captured on closing basis.